Today: WN 1219 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet today WN 1219 ATL 08:31 → TPA 09:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1370 ATL 18:05 → TPA 19:37 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1219 Southwest	ATL 08:31	TPA 09:33	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:38	TPA 10:07	11%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	13%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	TPA 11:29	14%	2%	0.5%	82%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	15%	4%	0.7%	72%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:46	TPA 14:13	20%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 1167 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:57	TPA 15:27	21%	6%	0.6%	71%
F9 3054 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:59	TPA 22:42	26%	13%	2.3%	60%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	TPA 16:58	26%	7%	0.6%	70%
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:52	TPA 17:35	30%	12%	1.7%	66%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:20	TPA 17:55	31%	8%	0.8%	74%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	TPA 21:30	31%	10%	2.1%	75%
DL 3135 Delta	ATL 19:57	TPA 21:28	33%	9%	3.9%	no record
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:22	TPA 18:57	33%	9%	0.9%	66%
WN 309 Southwest	ATL 18:18	TPA 19:55	36%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	36%	9%	1.3%	69%
WN 1370 Southwest	ATL 18:05	TPA 19:37	37%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON