Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 3782 · ATL → TPA
departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 11:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ATL that day
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.