Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4471 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4471 AUS 06:58 → HOU 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4192 AUS 16:53 → HOU 17:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4471 Southwest	AUS 06:58	HOU 07:59	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 361 Southwest	AUS 07:45	HOU 08:45	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4488 Southwest	AUS 12:58	HOU 13:58	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4192 Southwest	AUS 16:53	HOU 17:54	25%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON