Today: WN 345 at 09:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet today WN 345 AUS 09:59 → LAS 10:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4200 AUS 17:55 → LAS 18:52 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 345 Southwest	AUS 09:59	LAS 10:23	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 4296 Southwest	AUS 12:00	LAS 12:56	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 324 Southwest	AUS 12:23	LAS 13:24	17%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 347 Southwest	AUS 14:40	LAS 15:37	20%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 329 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:05	LAS 16:14	21%	5%	0.1%	45%
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:37	21%	8%	0.5%	77%
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:20	24%	7%	0.1%	72%
WN 2400 Southwest	AUS 19:58	LAS 20:59	28%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 4200 Southwest	AUS 17:55	LAS 18:52	30%	7%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON