Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 571 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 571 AUS 06:05 → MCO 09:49 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1439 AUS 17:59 → MCO 21:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 571 Southwest	AUS 06:05	MCO 09:49	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:00	MCO 11:40	6%	2%	1.2%	87%
F9 4524 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 10:46	MCO 14:38	10%	5%	3.2%	80%
WN 1245 Southwest	AUS 19:00	MCO 22:44	14%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 506 Southwest	AUS 12:58	MCO 16:28	15%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 1439 Southwest	AUS 17:59	MCO 21:29	23%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON