tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 35m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 26m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 29m Denver DEN 11:18 → PNS 15:16UA 1891 6h 46m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807 6h 35m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → AUS 04:58 → DFW 06:15AA 862 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:03 → PNS 10:58AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 6h 00m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 28m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 6h 58m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021 7h 27m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON