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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1132 Southwest AUS 08:05 SJC 09:49 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 510 Southwest AUS 18:32 SJC 20:21 14% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322 2h 49m Las Vegas LAS 09:46 → SJC 11:21WN 1682 7h 21m 100% 94%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:32 → LAS 09:28WN 323 3h 16m Las Vegas LAS 12:44 → SJC 14:16WN 372 7h 44m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:06 → LAS 16:08WN 329 2h 18m Las Vegas LAS 18:26 → SJC 19:55WN 1037 6h 49m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:09 → SJC 10:52AA 2046 7h 51m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 2h 34m Portland PDX 11:59 → SJC 13:44AS 694 8h 29m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:15 → LAX 17:20DL 986 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10DL 1420 7h 55m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 6h 20m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 49m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON