Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2712 AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2853 AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2712 Delta Flight history →	AVL 05:35	ATL 06:34	7%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 3059 Delta	AVL 11:50	ATL 12:55	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	AVL 10:05	ATL 11:05	10%	3%	1.3%	88%
9E 5193 Endeavor	AVL 19:12	ATL 20:19	11%	5%	1.9%	no record
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	AVL 13:59	ATL 15:03	12%	3%	1.0%	87%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	AVL 15:39	ATL 16:47	12%	3%	1.0%	80%
DL 2853 Delta Flight history →	AVL 07:53	ATL 08:57	16%	3%	1.3%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON