Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:05, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 440 United	AVL 15:40	DEN 17:30	11%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 53m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 07m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:26 → ATL 16:34DL 3099	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 17m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 08:22 → DEN 09:34DL 346	5h 59m	97%	88%
American Details →	AVL 06:05 → CLT 07:04AA 5489 · flown by PSA	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 10:55 → DEN 12:47AA 1662	8h 42m	100%	87%
United Details →	AVL 10:49 → ORD 11:55UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	7h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 57m	95%	81%
American Details →	AVL 11:22 → ORD 12:28AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 15:28 → DEN 17:04AA 1317	7h 42m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AVL 15:59 → DFW 17:38AA 569	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235	5h 42m	68%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON