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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 7h 01m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 57m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → AVL 06:03 → CLT 06:58AA 5489 · flown by PSA 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 08:46 → MSP 10:38AA 2972 5h 35m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:48 → MSP 20:22DL 2654 7h 23m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:39 → ATL 16:47DL 3099 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → MSP 21:50DL 9979 7h 11m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:49 → ORD 11:54UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Chicago ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298 6h 24m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → AVL 11:54 → LGA 13:46DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m New York LGA 17:02 → MSP 18:43DL 2349 7h 49m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON