tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
PT 5853 Piedmont AVL 11:19 PHL 13:11 11% 3% 1.2% no record
PT 5809 Piedmont AVL 18:42 PHL 20:33 13% 6% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 5h 22m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → AVL 05:58 → CLT 06:58AA 5489 · flown by PSA 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 09:58 → PHL 11:52AA 2565 5h 54m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:39 → ATL 16:47DL 3099 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 5h 41m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:42 → PHL 14:44DL 2956 6h 51m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:48 → ORD 11:54UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Chicago ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:52UA 2430 7h 04m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:21 → ORD 12:25AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 2h 33m Chicago ORD 14:58 → PHL 18:13AA 2840 6h 52m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → AVL 13:39 → CLT 14:39AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 17:59 → PHL 19:42AA 423 6h 03m 97% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON