Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2933 BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1082 BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2933 Delta Flight history →	BDL 06:00	ATL 08:27	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2554 Delta Flight history →	BDL 07:00	ATL 09:26	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2233 Delta Flight history →	BDL 08:05	ATL 10:29	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	BDL 11:35	ATL 14:03	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	BDL 18:00	ATL 20:47	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	BDL 13:50	ATL 16:20	8%	2%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON