tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:55 am at Hartford); 2 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3401 Republic BDL 19:35 IAD 21:19 7% 3% 0.1% no record
YV 3997 Mesa BDL 15:03 IAD 16:54 13% 4% 0.3% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BDL 11:08 → CLT 13:19AA 2838 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 16:08 → IAD 17:45AA 5447 · flown by PSA 6h 37m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:05 → DTW 19:15DL 2814 2h 32m Detroit DTW 21:47 → IAD 23:19DL 3088 6h 14m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627 3h 10m Chicago ORD 21:54 → IAD 00:52 +1UA 1922 7h 57m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 11:35 → ATL 14:03DL 2951 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:29 → IAD 17:24DL 1554 5h 49m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:13 → ATL 19:51DL 2739 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 28m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 6h 04m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BDL 11:39 → MSP 13:34DL 2007 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 6h 25m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → BDL 15:17 → CLT 17:18AA 2741 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 19:20 → IAD 20:50AA 3238 5h 33m 92% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON