Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5137 BGR 05:40 → LGA 07:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5010 BGR 16:58 → LGA 18:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5137 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 05:40	LGA 07:22	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 11:55	LGA 13:38	12%	6%	0.9%	80%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BGR 14:18	LGA 16:13	12%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BGR 13:35	LGA 15:17	14%	5%	0.7%	86%
YX 4353 Republic	BGR 17:58	LGA 19:53	15%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BGR 16:58	LGA 18:40	16%	7%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON