tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2913 Southwest BHM 10:21 TPA 12:58 14% 4% 0.9% no record
WN 3256 Southwest BHM 11:39 TPA 14:24 20% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:17 → ATL 07:21DL 2162 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 3h 50m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 14m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 5h 45m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → TPA 15:27DL 1167 4h 57m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 5h 16m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 6h 02m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA 1h 49m Philadelphia PHL 11:09 → TPA 14:14AA 2049 7h 14m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:24 → DFW 07:38AA 4186 · flown by Envoy 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → TPA 13:13AA 844 6h 49m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BHM 19:07 → MIA 22:12AA 3422 · flown by Envoy 1h 01m Miami MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714 4h 12m 65% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON