Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3746 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 06:00	DFW 09:55	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:12	DFW 17:00	10%	2%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:55 → DFW 11:37DL 2798	5h 17m	98%	92%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	6h 31m	98%	88%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 38m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 34m	98%	84%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:33UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Denver	DEN 15:37 → DFW 18:39UA 2230	6h 59m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	BIL 13:45 → SEA 14:55AS 2055 · flown by Horizon	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 18:20 → DFW 00:11 +1AS 542	9h 26m	100%	81%
American Details →	BIL 12:22 → ORD 16:17AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 18:28 → DFW 21:05AA 1559	7h 43m	90%	75%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 10:59 → DFW 17:00AS 341	10h 00m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	BIL 11:45 → SEA 12:55AS 2336 · flown by Horizon	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 14:32 → DFW 20:21AS 485	7h 36m	93%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON