Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1342 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1342 BNA 05:38 → MIA 09:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest MQ 4211 BNA 17:58 → MIA 21:22 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1342 American Flight history →	BNA 05:38	MIA 09:01	3%	1%	0.7%	92%
MQ 4123 Envoy	BNA 10:32	MIA 13:49	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1600 Southwest	BNA 12:09	MIA 15:24	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3418 Southwest	BNA 16:58	MIA 20:14	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4211 Envoy	BNA 17:58	MIA 21:22	24%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON