Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 529 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 529 BNA 05:58 → ORD 07:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2126 BNA 17:56 → ORD 19:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 529 United	BNA 05:58	ORD 07:58	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4964 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 05:13	ORD 07:09	5%	2%	0.7%	71%
AA 1105 American	BNA 07:00	ORD 08:58	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2465 United Flight history →	BNA 07:40	ORD 09:41	6%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 398 United	BNA 10:25	ORD 12:22	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2500 American Flight history →	BNA 09:02	ORD 10:52	7%	3%	0.6%	54%
OO 6354 SkyWest	BNA 10:29	ORD 12:47	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1616 United Flight history →	BNA 12:49	ORD 14:50	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
YX 3424 Republic	BNA 15:47	ORD 17:40	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 691 United	BNA 11:00	ORD 12:42	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3679 Envoy	BNA 19:43	ORD 21:25	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2112 American	BNA 15:52	ORD 17:37	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1127 United Flight history →	BNA 18:22	ORD 20:16	19%	5%	0.6%	48%
UA 1884 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	ORD 19:00	21%	4%	0.6%	57%
AA 2126 American	BNA 17:56	ORD 19:41	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON