tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 698 Southwest BNA 12:00 RIC 14:46 11% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 2519 Southwest BNA 15:40 RIC 18:17 16% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 46m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → RIC 14:07DL 3152 6h 49m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 35m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 1h 44m Detroit DTW 14:30 → RIC 16:13DL 3073 5h 07m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 56m Minneapolis MSP 20:10 → RIC 23:43DL 5530 · flown by Endeavor 6h 43m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:31 → JFK 10:52DL 4916 · flown by Endeavor 3h 37m New York JFK 14:29 → RIC 15:56DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor 7h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 5h 15m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54DL 1263 6h 03m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON