Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4930 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4930 BNA 10:20 → SAV 12:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3573 BNA 17:11 → SAV 19:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4930 Southwest	BNA 10:20	SAV 12:55	12%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3929 Southwest	BNA 10:03	SAV 12:30	14%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1125 Southwest	BNA 15:10	SAV 17:45	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4852 Southwest	BNA 17:15	SAV 19:51	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3573 Southwest	BNA 17:11	SAV 19:41	24%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON