Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1178 BNA 12:44 → TPA 15:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4090 BNA 16:01 → TPA 18:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1178 Southwest	BNA 12:44	TPA 15:48	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 8839 Delta	BNA 14:22	TPA 17:18	11%	5%	2.1%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	BNA 09:00	TPA 11:57	12%	3%	2.1%	no record
WN 1173 Southwest	BNA 14:16	TPA 17:05	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	BNA 14:19	TPA 17:20	16%	4%	2.7%	no record
WN 4445 Southwest	BNA 19:08	TPA 21:57	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 4090 Southwest	BNA 16:01	TPA 18:49	19%	4%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON