Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 1107 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1107 American Flight history →	BOI 06:21	DFW 10:34	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 2019 American	BOI 13:39	DFW 17:46	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 30m	99%	90%
United Details →	BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	6h 31m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOI 14:03 → ATL 20:19DL 874	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	9h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20DL 3725 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 09:36 → DFW 14:31DL 521	6h 31m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970	5h 59m	93%	87%
American Details →	BOI 09:06 → PHX 10:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	1h 39m Phoenix	PHX 12:12 → DFW 16:46AA 2905	6h 40m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	BOI 05:59 → PDX 06:25AS 782	59m Portland	PDX 07:24 → DFW 13:04AS 376	6h 05m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	BOI 14:50 → MSP 18:37DL 2982	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → DFW 22:21DL 2967	6h 31m	95%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BOI 13:06 → SEA 13:40AS 2235 · flown by Horizon	52m Seattle	SEA 14:32 → DFW 20:21AS 485	6h 15m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON