Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 782 BOI 06:02 → PDX 06:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest QX 2105 BOI 20:20 → PDX 20:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 782 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 06:02	PDX 06:29	5%	2%	0.3%	94%
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 09:04	PDX 09:26	9%	4%	0.6%	89%
OO 3148 SkyWest	BOI 20:26	PDX 21:02	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1314 Alaska	BOI 09:11	PDX 09:38	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 229 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 16:23	PDX 16:45	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 381 Alaska	BOI 13:31	PDX 13:57	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 740 Alaska	BOI 13:21	PDX 13:43	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
QX 2105 Horizon	BOI 20:20	PDX 20:58	13%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON