tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 2661 at 11:46, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2661 Southwest BOI 11:46 SJC 12:34 5% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20DL 3725 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Los Angeles LAX 09:27 → SJC 10:49DL 1380 4h 49m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:07 → SLC 12:22DL 1744 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 5h 57m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 09:01 → PDX 09:23AS 3495 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Portland PDX 11:59 → SJC 13:44AS 694 5h 43m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOI 16:00 → LAX 17:23DL 3701 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10DL 1420 7h 10m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 3h 58m Portland PDX 20:43 → SJC 22:24AS 755 7h 01m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:08UA 1256 7h 38m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOI 10:35 → SEA 11:26DL 3750 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 7h 31m 94% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BOI 10:00 → SEA 10:34AS 2166 · flown by Horizon 51m Seattle SEA 11:25 → SJC 13:30AS 658 4h 30m 21% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON