Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4357 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day AA 4357 BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:36 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest B6 817 BOS 19:39 → JFK 21:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:36	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
DL 2611 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:30	2%	2%	0.6%	93%
B6 717 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:18	JFK 06:42	5%	2%	0.7%	62%
B6 917 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:16	JFK 08:38	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 9966 Delta	BOS 11:26	JFK 12:41	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 1017 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:41	JFK 09:59	7%	3%	0.7%	67%
AA 4687 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:30	JFK 12:54	8%	2%	0.6%	66%
DL 5702 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:20	JFK 22:47	8%	3%	0.7%	66%
DL 5808 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:35	JFK 15:10	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
B6 1117 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:33	JFK 12:54	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
YX 4745 Republic	BOS 17:49	JFK 19:11	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:14	JFK 17:38	11%	3%	0.7%	60%
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	12%	4%	0.6%	66%
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:39	JFK 21:00	14%	5%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON