Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 4630 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 4630 BOS 06:05 → LGA 07:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5716 BOS 18:59 → LGA 20:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4630 Republic	BOS 06:05	LGA 07:30	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 5804 Republic	BOS 06:03	LGA 07:32	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 2524 Delta	BOS 07:06	LGA 08:31	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:04	LGA 08:34	5%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 5735 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:00	LGA 09:25	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 5732 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:00	LGA 10:22	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:00	LGA 11:15	7%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 5755 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LGA 12:19	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:00	LGA 13:21	7%	2%	0.7%	71%
DL 5748 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:00	LGA 14:27	7%	2%	0.7%	82%
YX 4386 Republic	BOS 10:08	LGA 11:23	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5730 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:00	LGA 15:20	8%	3%	0.8%	77%
DL 5840 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 22:00	LGA 23:23	8%	3%	0.8%	69%
YX 4371 Republic	BOS 08:08	LGA 09:24	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5736 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:00	LGA 16:30	8%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 5609 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:00	LGA 22:21	10%	4%	0.8%	67%
DL 5726 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:00	LGA 17:30	11%	3%	0.8%	68%
YX 5621 Republic	BOS 19:56	LGA 21:24	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1717 Delta	BOS 19:19	LGA 20:41	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1461 American	BOS 12:18	LGA 13:33	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5721 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	LGA 18:29	13%	4%	0.8%	69%
AA 1629 American	BOS 14:12	LGA 15:37	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:33	LGA 20:47	15%	5%	0.8%	57%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:46	LGA 20:10	16%	5%	0.7%	60%
DL 5716 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:59	LGA 20:29	16%	6%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON