Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:26	SDF 12:09	5%	2%	0.5%	85%
YX 4362 Republic	BOS 13:15	SDF 15:52	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	6h 21m	100%	93%
American Details →	BOS 08:28 → CLT 10:59AA 1348	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → SDF 13:57AA 2816	5h 29m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	7h 42m	99%	91%
American Details →	BOS 08:01 → DFW 11:21AA 701	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → SDF 17:27AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	9h 26m	99%	89%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 58m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → SDF 14:53UA 3980 · flown by Mesa	5h 28m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	7h 56m	99%	88%
American Details →	BOS 15:20 → PHL 16:58AA 1776	3h 46m Philadelphia	PHL 20:44 → SDF 22:52AA 4335 · flown by Republic	7h 32m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	7h 34m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON