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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 27m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 10:47 → EWR 12:43AA 1697 6h 42m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:06 → ORD 07:55UA 543 2h 56m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 11m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527 6h 40m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 2h 27m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 6h 49m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 5h 37m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 08:07 → ORD 09:08AA 1195 57m Chicago ORD 10:05 → EWR 13:12AA 2416 5h 05m 92% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 57m Chicago ORD 15:52 → EWR 19:01UA 249 5h 07m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON