Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 761 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 761 BUF 06:45 → MCO 09:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 177 BUF 14:28 → MCO 17:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 761 Southwest	BUF 06:45	MCO 09:23	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	8%	3%	1.0%	85%
F9 1691 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 18:45	MCO 21:47	22%	10%	3.2%	79%
WN 177 Southwest	BUF 14:28	MCO 17:04	22%	6%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON