Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 4751 at 11:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day YX 4751 BUF 11:58 → ORD 12:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2747 BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4751 Republic	BUF 11:58	ORD 12:56	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 543 United Flight history →	BUF 07:02	ORD 07:59	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1195 American Flight history →	BUF 07:57	ORD 09:06	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1651 United	BUF 10:32	ORD 11:24	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4741 SkyWest	BUF 13:37	ORD 14:28	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 856 American	BUF 18:46	ORD 19:37	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2747 United Flight history →	BUF 18:04	ORD 19:03	17%	4%	0.5%	63%
UA 4381 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 13:54	ORD 14:55	27%	16%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON