Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2427 BUR 08:13 → OAK 09:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2245 BUR 13:32 → OAK 14:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2427 Southwest	BUR 08:13	OAK 09:33	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2775 Southwest	BUR 09:45	OAK 11:05	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2549 Southwest	BUR 11:57	OAK 13:18	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 4875 Southwest	BUR 16:56	OAK 18:14	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 2428 Southwest	BUR 18:56	OAK 20:08	9%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 2245 Southwest	BUR 13:32	OAK 14:50	9%	3%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON