Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4743 at 13:23, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4743 Southwest	BWI 13:23	MEM 14:43	14%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → MEM 14:11DL 733	6h 54m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:13 → MEM 14:39DL 1942	5h 06m	98%	89%
American Details →	BWI 18:36 → ORD 19:56AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:46 → MEM 09:47DL 1627	4h 39m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	6h 10m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON