Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3945SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
MQ 3945 · ORD → MEM
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 12:18 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 148h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
23%chance · ±12 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.