Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3945 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3945 · ORD → MEM

departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 12:18 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 667 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,467 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3945 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?