Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3945 · ORD → MEM
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 12:18 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.20 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.