Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 4596 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 4596 BWI 05:58 → ORD 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4596 Republic	BWI 05:58	ORD 07:10	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2277 United	BWI 06:19	ORD 07:32	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:16	ORD 12:20	7%	2%	0.6%	79%
UA 249 United	BWI 11:53	ORD 12:58	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:09	ORD 15:17	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:21	ORD 19:35	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1223 United	BWI 18:56	ORD 20:01	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	18%	3%	0.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON