Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:00 am at Baltimore)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1828 Southwest	BWI 12:08	VPS 13:35	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1196 Southwest	BWI 12:10	VPS 13:30	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048	5h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	6h 28m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 43m	99%	88%
American Details →	BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11AA 5165 · flown by PSA	6h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 19:51 → ATL 21:52DL 2928	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	4h 38m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 34m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:28 → MSP 09:15DL 2872	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	6h 45m	96%	85%
American Details →	BWI 07:07 → DFW 09:47AA 1403	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	8h 36m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON