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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 70 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 5662 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 5662 ORD 06:06 → JFK 09:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 8157 ORD 17:52 → LGA 21:07 · 28% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
YX 5662 Republic ORD 06:06 JFK 09:33 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4525 Southwest MDW 05:11 LGA 08:16 3% 1% 0.7% no record
UA 2759 United Flight history → ORD 05:02 EWR 08:20 5% 2% 0.7% 47%
UA 3924 United ORD 06:06 EWR 09:22 5% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 2659 United ORD 06:06 EWR 09:18 5% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 2767 Delta Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:09 5% 1% 0.7% 92%
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 07:52 JFK 11:17 6% 1% 0.6% 70%
WN 802 Southwest MDW 07:21 LGA 10:26 6% 1% 0.7% no record
AA 1264 American Flight history → ORD 05:58 LGA 09:25 6% 2% 0.7% 62%
UA 2617 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:11 6% 2% 0.6% 89%
AA 699 American ORD 06:45 EWR 10:13 6% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 2633 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:14 7% 2% 0.7% 77%
UA 1273 United ORD 07:47 EWR 10:55 8% 3% 0.7% no record
B6 906 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 07:25 JFK 10:42 8% 1% 0.7% 88%
UA 1657 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:17 8% 2% 0.6% 82%
AA 2723 American Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:16 8% 2% 0.7% 79%
UA 2238 United ORD 09:11 EWR 12:22 9% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 1642 Delta ORD 09:27 LGA 12:41 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3010 Southwest MDW 10:36 LGA 13:37 10% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 1856 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 EWR 14:17 11% 3% 0.6% 80%
UA 2092 United Flight history → ORD 08:00 LGA 11:17 11% 2% 0.6% 86%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → ORD 11:30 LGA 15:00 11% 3% 0.6% 78%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → ORD 10:30 LGA 13:48 11% 2% 0.6% 72%
B6 1006 JetBlue ORD 11:05 JFK 14:22 11% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 1209 United Flight history → ORD 21:30 EWR 00:53 11% 3% 0.7% 68%
UA 606 United Flight history → ORD 12:11 EWR 15:39 12% 3% 0.6% 78%
UA 759 United Flight history → ORD 20:07 EWR 23:39 12% 4% 0.7% 65%
WN 4797 Southwest MDW 12:28 LGA 15:30 12% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 2941 American ORD 08:18 LGA 11:34 12% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 669 United Flight history → ORD 10:03 LGA 13:26 13% 3% 0.6% 82%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → ORD 20:10 LGA 23:44 13% 3% 0.7% 58%
UA 1258 United Flight history → ORD 09:06 LGA 12:21 13% 3% 0.6% 76%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → ORD 19:05 LGA 22:34 15% 4% 0.7% 64%
UA 529 United ORD 10:58 LGA 14:13 15% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2751 Southwest MDW 14:44 LGA 17:51 15% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 786 United ORD 12:02 LGA 15:18 16% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 903 American ORD 11:23 LGA 14:44 16% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 3128 American Flight history → ORD 11:58 LGA 15:14 16% 4% 0.7% 71%
AA 3225 American ORD 11:21 JFK 14:37 16% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 2485 American Flight history → ORD 13:32 JFK 17:01 16% 4% 0.7% 65%
AA 2224 American ORD 16:11 JFK 19:30 17% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 1631 Delta ORD 14:26 LGA 17:38 18% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 2416 American ORD 10:05 EWR 13:12 18% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1236 United ORD 15:18 EWR 18:35 18% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2549 American Flight history → ORD 20:09 EWR 23:30 18% 5% 0.8% 45%
AA 3163 American Flight history → ORD 12:35 LGA 15:51 18% 4% 0.7% 68%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → ORD 17:32 LGA 20:44 19% 5% 0.7% 57%
WN 4236 Southwest MDW 17:45 LGA 20:53 19% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 1582 Southwest MDW 18:59 LGA 22:08 19% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 2189 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LGA 16:22 19% 5% 0.6% 65%
UA 2827 United ORD 20:04 LGA 23:23 20% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1630 United Flight history → ORD 16:57 EWR 20:07 20% 4% 0.6% 70%
AA 512 American ORD 13:36 LGA 16:56 20% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 511 United ORD 15:52 LGA 19:07 20% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 1821 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 LGA 17:22 21% 6% 0.7% 65%
UA 2133 United ORD 15:18 LGA 18:38 21% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2466 United ORD 15:00 EWR 18:09 21% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 1166 American Flight history → ORD 19:56 LGA 23:12 22% 4% 0.7% 52%
UA 249 United ORD 15:52 EWR 19:01 22% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2790 United ORD 17:53 EWR 21:04 22% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 456 United ORD 17:15 LGA 20:37 23% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 866 American ORD 15:05 LGA 18:14 23% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 673 American Flight history → ORD 16:43 LGA 19:58 23% 6% 0.7% 47%
AA 1936 American Flight history → ORD 13:10 EWR 16:30 23% 5% 0.8% 65%
AA 3253 American Flight history → ORD 17:36 EWR 21:00 24% 6% 0.8% 47%
AA 774 American Flight history → ORD 18:30 LGA 21:45 25% 6% 0.7% 58%
UA 8157 United ORD 17:52 LGA 21:07 28% 6% 0.6% no record
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 10:05 JFK 13:30 27% 16% 6.2% 73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 13:00 JFK 16:37 29% 14% 11.6% 71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 18:00 JFK 21:40 51% 22% 23.6% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON