Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4580 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4580 CHS 06:04 → LGA 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1404 CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4580 Republic	CHS 06:04	LGA 08:13	5%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 4351 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 14:48	LGA 17:06	9%	4%	1.0%	60%
DL 2013 Delta	CHS 11:25	LGA 13:25	14%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	CHS 15:42	LGA 17:48	19%	6%	1.2%	63%
DL 5093 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 07:00	LGA 09:00	16%	7%	7.7%	84%
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 11:25	LGA 13:27	20%	8%	3.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON