Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 1763 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1763 American Flight history →	CHS 06:07	MIA 07:57	7%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 2152 American	CHS 17:16	MIA 19:06	33%	9%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHS 01:24 → CLT 02:44AA 1586	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165	5h 56m	98%	94%
Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 47m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 09:31 → MIA 11:33DL 2836	5h 18m	99%	91%
American Details →	CHS 05:00 → CLT 06:01AA 3298	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → MIA 11:22AA 3184	6h 22m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	7h 06m	100%	86%
American Details →	CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198	6h 53m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 27m	99%	86%
American Details →	CHS 06:46 → DFW 08:52AA 1435	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454	7h 43m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON