Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 07:53 → ORD 09:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2680 CHS 16:50 → ORD 18:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 07:53	ORD 09:27	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 2821 United	CHS 11:22	ORD 12:45	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3187 American	CHS 07:19	ORD 08:56	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3868 Envoy	CHS 19:39	ORD 21:00	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2154 American	CHS 13:49	ORD 15:26	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHS 18:51	ORD 20:22	14%	6%	0.8%	57%
UA 2680 United	CHS 16:50	ORD 18:22	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON