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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 33m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 5h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833 6h 31m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CHS 14:48 → LGA 17:06AA 4351 · flown by Republic 1h 53m New York LGA 18:59 → STL 20:55AA 4728 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 5h 48m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 12:04 → STL 12:51AA 3096 5h 03m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 1h 42m Newark EWR 09:41 → STL 11:15UA 2311 6h 15m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON