Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1203 CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 703 CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1203 American Flight history →	CLT 10:21	BUF 12:05	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	CLT 13:53	BUF 15:40	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 703 American Flight history →	CLT 21:05	BUF 22:51	13%	5%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON