Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1925 CLT 10:48 → JAX 12:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1937 CLT 12:36 → JAX 14:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1925 American Flight history →	CLT 10:48	JAX 12:25	14%	4%	5.3%	81%
AA 3078 American	CLT 22:07	JAX 23:31	17%	6%	5.1%	no record
AA 1759 American	CLT 21:13	JAX 22:37	18%	8%	6.8%	no record
AA 1937 American	CLT 12:36	JAX 14:06	19%	5%	10.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON