Today: AA 2264 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet today AA 2264 CLT 08:25 → SRQ 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2604 CLT 19:27 → SRQ 21:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2264 American	CLT 08:25	SRQ 10:19	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1452 American Flight history →	CLT 10:36	SRQ 12:41	17%	7%	0.8%	75%
AA 5348 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:32	SRQ 20:23	19%	5%	1.3%	100%worse than usual
AA 2143 American	CLT 14:00	SRQ 15:55	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2586 American	CLT 15:46	SRQ 17:47	31%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2604 American Flight history →	CLT 19:27	SRQ 21:23	31%	8%	1.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON