Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 354 United Flight history →	CMH 07:45	LAX 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 07m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	9h 20m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	10h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 14:07 → DTW 15:20DL 5774 · flown by Republic	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852	8h 57m	100%	90%
United Details →	CMH 06:02 → IAD 07:27UA 3430 · flown by Republic	1h 56m Dulles	IAD 09:23 → LAX 11:44UA 657	8h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 17m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 56m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → LAX 16:37DL 2974	8h 44m	98%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	CMH 07:00 → SEA 09:07AS 283	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 10:07 → LAX 12:42AS 496	8h 42m	70%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON