Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 15%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3560 at 06:18, 2%.

Safest bet that day WN 3560 CMH 06:18 → MCO 08:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2438 CMH 16:01 → MCO 18:13 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Weather 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3560 Southwest	CMH 06:18	MCO 08:28	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
F9 1612 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 21:12	MCO 23:43	19%	12%	3.2%	80%
WN 2438 Southwest	CMH 16:01	MCO 18:13	23%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON