Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 393 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:00	LAX 08:30	6%	2%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 11:03 → LAX 12:52DL 733	9h 43m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 03m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:57 → DTW 09:16DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor	3h 34m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	9h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 12m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:46 → AUS 10:34DL 5005 · flown by Endeavor	3h 06m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	9h 02m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic	2h 33m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	11h 03m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	8h 15m	99%	89%
United Details →	CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	8h 17m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON