Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4186 DAL 07:45 → AUS 08:52 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 9004 DAL 18:32 → AUS 19:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4186 Southwest	DAL 07:45	AUS 08:52	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1240 Southwest	DAL 08:38	AUS 09:40	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 8507 Southwest	DAL 07:30	AUS 08:22	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1462 Southwest	DAL 11:54	AUS 12:55	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2524 Southwest	DAL 15:14	AUS 16:17	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3333 Southwest	DAL 13:04	AUS 14:10	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1243 Southwest	DAL 21:30	AUS 22:31	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 9004 Southwest	DAL 18:32	AUS 19:37	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON