Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4538 at 15:44, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4538 Southwest	DAL 15:44	FLL 19:24	22%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	6h 15m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → HOU 08:10WN 1	3h 53m Houston	HOU 12:03 → FLL 15:31WN 1670	7h 31m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	7h 40m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 05m Houston	HOU 18:20 → FLL 21:46WN 4230	6h 46m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	5h 42m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON